Malaysia to Remain Resilient Amid AI Boom and Semiconductor Exports

Andrew Lim, Portfolio Head for Maritime Southeast Asia

6 February 2026

KUALA LUMPUR: The global economy is expected to grow at a moderate, though not particularly exciting, pace once again this year, supported by easing monetary policy, fiscal stimulus in key economies, and the ongoing artificial intelligence (AI) boom. However, significant downside risks remain in a volatile and unpredictable global environment, according to ACCA’s latest Global Economic Outlook.

The third edition of ACCA’s annual forecast finds that global growth proved more resilient than expected in 2025, despite major trade disruptions and widespread policy uncertainty. This resilience is likely to continue into 2026, with global GDP expected to expand by around 3%, broadly in line with last year, although risks are more firmly weighted to the downside.

Former IMF chief economist Ken Rogoff, interviewed for the report, describes the global economy as ‘solid but uninspiring’, while warning that the scale of uncertainty is not fully reflected in financial markets. He cautions of the potential for a significant stock market correction over the next three years, even as markets may rise further in the short term.

He remarked, “Despite the surprisingly positive economic outlook given where we were six months ago, there are numerous downsides to the US administration’s policies, with negative consequences for the US economy likely to emerge in 2027 and 2028. Populist policies work until they don’t.”

Jonathan Ashworth, ACCA’s Chief Economist and author of the report, stated: “In the central scenario, the global economy should continue its steady expansion in 2026, supported by looser monetary policy, fiscal easing, and the ongoing AI boom. The US is expected to be the fastest-growing G7 economy, with the administration likely to intensify efforts to stimulate growth ahead of the mid-term elections. However, the global outlook remains fragile, amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty, risks of escalation in trade tensions, and concerns over threats to the Federal Reserve’s independence.”

The report highlights three key themes that could significantly influence the global economic outlook this year:

- Developments in AI: Signs that investment in AI is beginning to boost productivity could ease fears of an AI bubble similar to the dot-com crash. Conversely, if doubts about its productivity benefits grow, the risk of a market correction may increase.

- Developments in advanced economy bond markets: A substantial rise in government bond yields could impact economies and increase debt-servicing costs. Potential catalysts include investor concerns over debt sustainability, threats to the Federal Reserve’s independence, political instability, and monetary tightening in Japan.

- Global trade dynamics:The ongoing ripple effects from the recent rise in US tariffs require close monitoring, with risks of re-escalation in trade tensions still present.

Malaysia’s economy is poised to mirror the global pattern of resilient yet vulnerable growth in 2026, with GDP growth projected at 4-5%, driven by AI investments, higher semiconductor exports, and monetary easing.

ACCA’s third annual report forecasts global GDP growth of around 3%, reflecting the surprising resilience seen in 2025 amid trade disruptions and policy shocks.

For Malaysia, this outlook supports domestic strengths such as data centre expansions—like Microsoft’s USD2.2 billion AI hub in Kuala Lumpur and Johor—and export diversification. However, downside risks from US tariffs, geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea, and rising bond yields remain significant.

Andrew Lim, Portfolio Head for Maritime Southeast Asia (Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Brunei) at ACCA, commented, “Malaysia remains resilient in ACCA’s 2026 outlook, leveraging its AI and digital economy initiatives to navigate global fragility. Finance leaders must prioritise cybersecurity, green transitions, and agile trade strategies to turn uncertainties, such as US policy shifts and bond market volatility, into opportunities.”